FROZEN PREDICTION

East Carolina vs Charlotte

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

East Carolina by 3.9

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-17T15:32:44.775165-05:00 · Snapshot 531 · Home win probability 0.3812 · 80% margin interval -20.6 to 12.7.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 17, 2026 · 3:31 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14558898521162672	0.14023457419683835	-0.18132191204211334
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05459586945436003	0.05258796532381438	-0.0023145452640297645
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03639724630290668	0.03505864354920959	-0.01619314334000769
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.09099311575726671	0.08764660887302397	-0.13925167282091577
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.09099311575726671	0.08764660887302397	-0.07686829114142843
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.005067567567567568	0.010135135135135136	0.0054543384380956635
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.006756756756756757	0.013513513513513514	-0.018062567597583068
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.008445945945945946	0.016891891891891893	-0.007553498307538948
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.006756756756756757	0.013513513513513514	0.014487615645304886
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.008445945945945946	0.016891891891891893	-0.002498713705205431
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10919173890872005	0.10517593064762876	-0.050287238111029
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07279449260581336	0.07011728709841918	-0.18552788644362936
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05459586945436003	0.05258796532381438	0.01230450309588351
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10919173890872005	0.10517593064762876	0.03070853306231278
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05459586945436003	0.05258796532381438	-0.0846400774310876
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14558898521162672	0.14023457419683835	-0.21686846748566635

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.