FROZEN PREDICTION

Florida International vs Delaware

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Florida International by 1.0

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-17T15:32:44.775165-05:00 · Snapshot 531 · Home win probability 0.4703 · 80% margin interval -17.6 to 15.7.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 17, 2026 · 3:31 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.08386828659291479
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.10551750609044419
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	0.046742315382125574
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.16908678779155367
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.07706998661698254
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	0.020893380060181984
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.0025519162318633215
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.0203080861340422
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.027674049321194674
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.013149466001433484
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.01154443290970747
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	-0.1588640055293838
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.041428673881816466
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.040674104023858945
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.10362958915474935

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.