FROZEN PREDICTION

Boston College vs Notre Dame

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Notre Dame by 13.7

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-17T15:32:44.775165-05:00 · Snapshot 531 · Home win probability 0.8549 · 80% margin interval -2.9 to 30.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 17, 2026 · 3:31 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14149443561208266	0.14023457419683835	0.2913170571032968
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.05258796532381438	0.08949309407600506
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.03505864354920959	-0.022913627090761553
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08843402225755168	0.08764660887302397	0.04096424087287584
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08843402225755168	0.08764660887302397	0.22887351247111454
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	-0.009804099254953581
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.033268421513655784
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.03300859178421898
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.018483980409653482
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.033051703158023776
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.106120826709062	0.10517593064762876	0.14707468018150122
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07074721780604133	0.07011728709841918	0.1382098974222707
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.05258796532381438	0.17751173500067227
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.106120826709062	0.10517593064762876	-0.1010081510508751
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.05258796532381438	0.1962151309828659
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14149443561208266	0.14023457419683835	0.31328277722440045

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.