FROZEN PREDICTION

Fresno State vs Texas State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Texas State by 5.4

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesNeutral effect

Close-game gritNeutral effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-17T15:32:44.775165-05:00 · Snapshot 531 · Home win probability 0.6602 · 80% margin interval -11.3 to 22.0.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 17, 2026 · 3:31 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.1049484254591836
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.0
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.0401135023851756
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.13440300473621952
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	-0.00615051170488661
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.0014099443662545425
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.001338954006893137
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.019574327568649894
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.003194278880725065
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.12624482439716433
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	0.06966277943616084
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.015329509974291135
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.1575344804115767
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.04067410402385893
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.10362958915474929

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.