Sat, Dec 12 · 2:00 PM CST · CBS
FORECAST REVISION
Download CSVMy CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 15 · revision 3
2026 · Week 15 · 1 matchups
Experimental picks: the scoring formula is transparent, but its real-season accuracy is not established yet.
Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.
Model configuration used
- Configuration
- Revision 3
- Engine version
- 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
- Evidence cutoff
- Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT
Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.
| Factor key | Normalized share |
|---|---|
adj_margin | 0.108108 |
avoid_bad_losses | 0.040541 |
close_game_wins | 0.027027 |
defense_ppg | 0.067568 |
offense_ppg | 0.067568 |
preseason_portal | 0.040541 |
preseason_previous_performance | 0.054054 |
preseason_recruiting | 0.067568 |
preseason_returning | 0.054054 |
preseason_talent | 0.067568 |
quality_wins | 0.081081 |
recent_form | 0.054054 |
road_neutral_wins | 0.040541 |
sos | 0.081081 |
statement_wins | 0.040541 |
win_pct | 0.108108 |
| Retained calibration/context | Frozen value |
|---|---|
version | provisional-all-slates-policy-v1 |
calibration_kind | documented_policy |
validation_status | not_historically_validated |
applied_home_field_points | 2.5 |
applied_fcs_baseline_z | -1.5 |
residual_scale | 13.0 |
residual_scale_source | documented_policy_not_validated |
intercept | 0.0 |
difference_coefficient | 7.0 |
home_field_coefficient | 2.5 |
These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.