FROZEN PREDICTION

Navy vs Army

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 15 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Army by 2.4

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthNeutral effect

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentAway data unavailable

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsNeutral effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:50:37.995831-05:00 · Snapshot 516 · Home win probability 0.5733 · 80% margin interval -14.3 to 19.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	0.0356276385725465
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.01610770466910926
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.033720040795512496	0.02179846406581533
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	0.04984487858043077
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	0.05328156902157814
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	0.0036352278136344745
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.00989523631173127
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.0
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.051713608112401305
Team talent	Measured	Data unavailable	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.037621439581113164
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	0.01322533627229715
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.06744008159102499	0.010376693997065176
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.03457019580867674
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	-0.016276899391268425
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.0
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	0.11669872010785776

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.